Phillies OF: Who to platoon? (Hint: not Brown)

Some Phillies fans have been talking recently about the prospect of signing Adrian Beltre. Problem is, he’s a third baseman, which means the Phils would have to move Polanco someplace else or get rid of him entirely. I like Polanco, so I’m not too keen on ousting him, but I guess there’s not really anywhere else he can go unless he’s been hiding some outfield talent up his sleeve.
Speaking of the outfield…I can’t wait to see what the Phillies end up doing. But I mean that not in the immediate sense–rather, where will the OF be a quarter of the season through, when they’ve really figured things out?
It’s obvious Victorino will hold down the fort at centerfield. He has two more years on his contract and, although he seemed undisciplined at the plate at time throughout the 2010 season, fangraphs actually has his WAR at a solid 3.6 and his 2010 worth at $14.4 million, which was indeed higher than his 2010 salary ($5 million). Victorino made the Phillies money and can be expected to continue producing runs and making defensive plays in 2011.
The question is how will the Phillies fill the undeniable gaping hole Jayson Werth left open when he signed his monster contract with the Nationals? RAJ maintains that Dom Brown has to earn his place on the big league team or will otherwise star the season back in the minors. So here’s where I take issue and wish the Phillies would do something different. Bring Brown up and keep him there. Give him a chance to grow. By the end of the season, he will have improved to the level of performance fans expect of him. If the Phillies send him down and bring him up just for a few at-bats here and there (like they did the end of the 2010 season), they stunt his development and extend the length of time until they get real production out of him. It’s nobody’s fault but their own.
Let’s say the Phillies do keep Brown up after Spring Training. There are talks of Ibanez starting in left and Brown/Francisco platooning in right. I love the idea of Francisco platooning with another player, but NOT Dom Brown. NOT DOM BROWN. He needs to be a full-time starter to develop the way he hasn’t been able to.

Instead, put Brown in right all on his own, accept that he’ll make some rookie mistakes offensively and defensively, but know that it will all be worth it in the end (“end” hopefully meaning the final stretch of the season). Platoon Francisco and Ibanez.
I know, Ibanez is a nice guy and still has some talent left in his older frame and all that, but would you rather take a risk on an old guy or a young guy? Last season, the Phillies lost money on Ibanez, according to fangraphs, which estimated Ibanez’s 2010 worth at $7 million. A positive monetary value, yes. But the Phillies paid him $11.5 million–the same amount they will pay him in 2011.
Instead of Ibanez only making the Phillies $7 million of the $11.5 million they’re paying him, let’s stick Benihana in the mix and let him contribute and perhaps close some of the gap. Though Ibanez has certainly has up moments in addition to down ones, Francisco could add a little variety and give Ibanez a break.
And though Brown will almost certainly make mistakes to start and could even end the season with an overall negative estimated worth to the Phillies, it’s for the best, both for Brown and the Phillies. Brown’s talent was grossly neglected toward the end of the 2010 season, and that can’t happen again. Give him a legit chance, not just a handful of at-bats. And, fans, in the meantime, don’t hate on him until he gets that chance. The ML at-bats he had in 2010 were teeny tiny sample size. Wait until you see him over a full season to judge.
Let’s just hope the Phillies give him that opportunity.

The healthy choice: Unload Blanton

There have been talks and talks and more talks about whether the Phillies should trade Joe Blanton or keep him around for 2011. A recent guest columnist on Crashburn Alley argues that the Phillies should hold onto Blanton at least through the All-Star break in hopes that he regains some value and can then be traded without the Phillies having to eat any of his salary.

I think that’s sound enough reasoning, but I maintain that the Phillies should go with the option that will guarantee them money in return… This is not a comment on how I think Blanton will perform in 2011, rather a comment on financial sense on the Phillies’ part.

1. If the Phillies keep Blanton…

**Disclaimer: The percentage values assigned with each scenario are assuming randomness, not factoring in Blanton’s past performance or predicted future performance.**

Best Case Scenario: Blanton shocks all doubters and posts insane numbers, making the Phillies’ rotation even scarier than ever imagined. The Phillies win the World Series. The $17 million paid to Blanton over the next two seasons are well worth it. No money freed up for other deals, but that’s no matter. Percent chance, given the Phillies keep Blanton for 2011, this scenario happens: 33.3%

Middle Case Scenario: Blanton does a little better than in his 2010 campaign and manages to push his value up so that the Phillies have to eat little to none of his salary. But they will have already paid him somewhere in the $4 million range. Let’s say they then have to eat $3 million. That’s $7 million spent for an OK half-season. Considering Blanton’s salary over the full season is $8.5 million, it’s almost a pointless effort to unload him at the break, unless the Phillies don’t have to eat any greens and can thereby free up $4.5 million from 2011, plus $8.5 million from 2012, totaling $13 million freed up in 2012 signings. This $13 million saved is the best case of the middle case, a rather conservative estimate assuming the Phillies would not have to eat any of Blanton’s salary. Let’s say the Phillies wait until the end of the season to trade Blanton, under the same conditions. They free up $8.5 million. Again, this is if no salary must be eaten. Percentage chance best case of middle case (approx. $13 million freed up)  happens: 11.1%. Percentage chance the Phillies unload Blanton at the end of the year without eating salary ($8.5 million freed up): 11.1%. Percentage chance Blanton improves, but not enough to free the Phillies from eating any of his salary: 11.1%

Worst Case Scenario: Blanton performs even worse than last season and Kendrick and/or Worley end up starting in his place. With Blanton benched, his $8.5 million 2011 salary is a sunk cost. The Phillies are basically paying $8.5 million for a sack of balls. At the end of the season, it’s a must-do to unload him, but they have to eat $5 million of his 2012 salary, freeing up just $3.5 million for other deals. Percentage chance this scenario happens, whereby the Phillies have a net gain of around $3.5 million: 33.3%

2. If the Phillies unload Blanton before the start of the 2011 season…

Only Case Scenario: The Phillies eat $8-9 million of Blanton’s remaining $17 million, freeing up $8-9 million committed dollars. Percent chance the Phillies get this money, given they unload Blanton prior to 2011: 100%

I’d take the guaranteed $8-9 million for other signings any day, especially knowing Kendrick (who had about the same average production as Blanton in 2010 and who will probably be making around $2 million in 2011, arbitration decision pending) and Worley (whose minor league stats and 13 IP in the majors project him as a solid guy in the fifth slot) will be around.

When it comes down to it, you can grumble and grumble over whether you think Blanton will improve and up his trade stock or even contribute substantially to the rotation, but the option that makes the most financial sense is to unload him now, before the 2011 season even thinks about beginning.

The only reason I would suggest considering keeping Blanton is if the Phillies have to eat more than $9 million of his salary. Even if that were the case, I would still heavily lean toward accepting the guaranteed, rather than banking on something you just cannot predict.

Ornament Day, plus a slugger!

A little late on this one (today’s Matt’s birthday!), but if you go to Citizens Bank Park today, you can buy three ornaments and get a fourth free! Also, if you spend $100 or more, you’ll get a free Charlie Manuel Louisville Slugger Bat…

6a00d83451af4b69e20133f21a2be3970b-500wi.png
Plus, you can now order “Great Expectations: The 2010 Phillies Video Yearbook” online! 
Lots of great Phillies goodness today! 

Great Expectations–DVD day at CBP!

Not sure I’ll be going to CBP for a third day in a row, though I’m slightly tempted to go every day leading up to my sad departure from the area (heading to Chicago) Dec. 23. Either way, that shouldn’t stop you from going to get 25% off all Phillies DVDs and CDs! Plus a free rally towel with any purchase, while supplies last. But most importantly…

**the premiere of “Great Expectations: The 2010 Phillies Video Yearbook”**
Philadelphia Phillies Great Expectations: The 2010 Philadelphia Phillies Video Yearbook DVD - MLB.jpeg
Inspiring DVD cover, at the very least. The DVD has its premiere today at Citizens Bank Park and then will be available for sale online tomorrow at the Phillies online shop. 
It seems as though, considering he contributed a good bit to the Phillies’ “exciting 2010 campaign,” Jayson Werth should be included on that cover. But he’s no longer one of the faces of the Phillies, I suppose! For many, he probably never was. I love the Halladay-Ruiz hug as the main image. Can’t wait to see what’s inside!
Oh and in case you forget what rally towels look like, here’s an example of what you might get for free if you make a purchase! (Probably same “Fightin’ Phils,” but very likely not from the 2008 WS…in fact, probably one of the 2010 ones they’re trying to unload, I’d guess.)
rally_towel1.jpeg
Aaaaaand here’s what you can do with it when April rolls around!
1446194465_2562ad840b_b.jpeg

T-shirts? Lee-shirts!

Matt and I planned on going to Citizens Bank Park today for Cliff Lee’s press conference. We read (on trusty ol’ Twitter) at around 12:30 that it would be at 3 p.m. By that point, we had already resigned ourselves to a later time, around 4 p.m. or so and made other plans through the afternoon. So we sort of shifted around some things and zoomed to CBP to get there just a couple of minutes after 3. On the way, we heard on 97.5 the Fanatic that they were at McFadden’s for that afternoon/early evening show, so we went into the restaurant instead of the Majestic store. 

The bar area at McFadden’s was pretty packed with fans, most of them decked out in Phillies gear. The Fanatic crew were all set up down at one end (near the restrooms) with more fans seated at the tables directly in front of them. There was free beer for everyone watching the broadcast, which I’m sure was much to the delight of most fans. Throughout the presser, I just kept getting chills every time Lee mentioned anything about feeling like he belonged in Philadelphia. I’m not sure he ever used those exact words, but he hinted at that type of feeling a few times, including saying he never wanted to leave. Just warmed my heart right on up. 

After the presser, Matt and I went to the Majestic store to see if they had any Lee T-shirts available… There weren’t any out, so I asked an employee how much it would cost to get Lee’s name and number printed on a plain shirt. She grinned and said, “They’re on their way now! Just wait a few minutes!” About five minutes later, a few employees trudged in with big brown boxes filled with shirts. Another half hour later, the shirts were finally ready for sale, all stacked up on a nice red-tableclothed table right near the doors: 

Lee shirts.jpg
Just lovely.
Then, on the way back from CBP, we heard Mike Missanelli on the radio orchestrating a debate over whether #34 Cliff Lee shirts should be acceptable attire for fans. He holds that the answer is a resounding no, that maybe if Lee were still no longer on the team and fans still thought he should be there, maybe then it would be acceptable. But not with Halladay and Lee both on the team. He said go pay a small fee to get the 4 on your jersey switched out for a 3. (Or put tape over the numbers/names like Phillies fans apparently love doing.) Then, he said it’s just disrespectful to Halladay for fans to wear #34 Lee shirts. Wait, how does that change with or without Lee on the team? 
I say, on the other hand, it’s not disrespectful to Halladay to wear a #34 Lee shirt. If a fan paid money to buy that shirt, they’re contributing money to your multimillion-dollar salary. Be thankful. Be grateful. Let fans wear whatever the heck they want to wear. Sure, I’d prefer a shirt with the correct number, but some might just be wearing a shirt to wear a shirt. If they’ve got “Lee” and “#34,” couldn’t it be said they’re supporting Lee and Halladay at the same time? I say yes. The shirt can be whatever the fan wearing it wants to be. It’s ridiculous to suggest otherwise. I can wear my clothes the way I want to wear them, period. 
That being said, it did hurt my heart a little to see a fan at McFadden’s wearing a #28 Werth shirt with duct-taped “LEE” over the name. I love Lee, but I also love Werth with a pretty fiery passion…let’s let his four-year legacy live just a little longer before we deface his memory? At least I will. (I’d be hypocritical to demand others do the same, so no demands from me!)

Press Conference, Chooch!

I’ll be here waiting just like the rest of us for Cliff Lee’s press conference! He has his physical this morning and then will be addressing the media at some point later today (theoretically, unless something goes awry with his physical.) 

In the meantime, today is Feliz Navidad-Chooch Day at Citizens Bank Park! That means 25% off all Ruiz merchandise, so you can finally get that jersey you’ve been on the fence about! And a free bobblehead with any $100 purchase! Something like this: 

vintage-bobble-head-bobbleheads-nodder-dolls-disney-sports-nfl-mlb-collectible-geico-gecko-207011206506327580.jpeg

Inside the Phillies’ Clubhouse

Matt and I indeed ended up going to Citizens Bank Park today for day 2 of their 12 Days of Christmas. Their specials today were a free tour of the Phillies’ clubhouse and 25% off all headwear. We passed on the headwear, but we definitely wanted to go on the tour. That’s really what pushed us into driving those 30 minutes there today, after having a monumentally frustrating couple of interactions with a Staples fax machine and the post office. 
On our way to the elevators down to the clubhouse, we walked through a portion of the stadium. We could feel the crisp air, see the polished seats and impeccable field. The empty stadium had a stately, fantastical feel. It was pretty sweet to think of the magic to come in 2011. 
Anyway, once we took the elevator down to level B, we walked down a pretty long concrete-wall hallway. On our right were the umpires’ dressing rooms, and on our left was the Phanatic’s dressing room. The two tour guides told our group of 10-15 fans that the Phanatic is the only one with a private dressing room…and that dressing room is the only place in the whole stadium with a bath tub. I wonder how much it’s used. 
At the end of the hallway, you could turn left and go to the visiting clubhouse or right and go to the Phillies’ clubhouse. Down the hallway to the right, we came upon batting cages. The tour guides told us the visiting side has only one cage, while the Phillies have two. Also, has anyone ever noticed turf smells like crayons sometimes? 
Past the batting cages was a “Today’s Lineup” sign. The Phillies did it up all cutesy, with Dasher at short, Dancer at third, Prancer at second, Vixen at first, Comet at right field, Cupid at left field, Donner at centerfield, Blitzen at catcher and Rudolph on the mound. For a few moments, I tried to come up with justifications for those particular pairings, i.e., “Of course Jimmy is ‘Dasher,’ he’s super fast!” And things like that. But then I realized they were just listed in the order they’re rattled off in the song. Bummer.

After the reindeer lineup, we were in the clubhouse and greeted by this view:

 

philliesclubhouse.jpg

(Excuse the poor image quality–cell phone picture.) 

I’ve seen the clubhouse on video before, but it really was quite, quite nice. As you can see in the image, there are four red leather chairs (on each side) in the middle with “lockers” lining each side. There are 46 lockers, so in the regular season, lots of guys spread out and take up a couple. The tour guides said at the beginning of the season, players come in and get to choose whatever locker they’d like, but if there are any disputes, veteran status wins out. If you look at the double doors directly ahead in the shot and shift your eyes to the locker just to the right, that was Halladay’s this past season. (All of the players have name plates above their locker.) Jayson Werth’s nameplate was still there. I took a picture with it for memory’s sake. I wished they’d somehow have a Cliff Lee one up there somewhere, but no such luck. 
The guides said through those double doors to the right was food. They said the players eat before and after the games and then whenever they can in-between, so there’s always food available. Through those doors and to the left is the training equipment, including submersible treadmills for injured players. I wished we could see those facilities, but the tour was only half an hour (which included 10+ minutes to individually play around in the clubhouse and take pictures), so that didn’t leave much time to see other stuff. The guides also said, though, that when players got to the workout facility, the first one in would be the one whose music everyone would listen to until that player finished their workout. So they said guys scramble in to try to be the first to put their CDs in, or hook their iPods up. With all the talk of his workout schedule, wouldn’t you think Halladay would always be the first one in? Maybe he’s in and out before the other guys make it in. 
There’s another set of doors on the left side of the room, through which you can find showers. Again, we didn’t see these, but it’s what we were told! The guides also said it’s recommended to come back on a tour when the Phillies are in season, because then you can see their uniforms, shoes, bats, etc., in their lockers. They also said it’s fun to see certain players’ special items, like Jimmy Rollins’ silver boombox or Victorino’s pictures of his children. I guess they like to dress up and personalize their workspaces just like everyone else! 
Although the tour was short, it was a good time! I would suggest going if you haven’t. The space has a ballin’ feel to it. Like you know really talented people are housed in there.

Citizens Bank Park — 12 Days of Christmas!

Seemingly to herald in the signing of Cliff Lee, the Phillies just started their “12 Days of Christmas” special deals yesterday, December 13, with 25% off all Halladay merchandise and a free Halladay Pride of the Phillies print with any purchase. Today, they’ve got free clubhouse tours 1 p.m. – 6 p.m., along with 25% off all headwear and a free Phillies rally towel with any purchase. If you missed yesterday and can’t make it today, make sure to check out one (or all) of the following special days at Citizens Bank Park! (Note: Pretty much all of this information is straight from phillies.com. Also, all of the free items are while supplies last!)
Wednesday, December 15 — Feliz Navidad-Chooch Day
*25% off all Carlos Ruiz merchandise
*Free Carlos Ruiz Bobble Figurine with any $100 purchase
Thursday, December 16 — Phillies DVD Day
*25% off all Phillies DVDs and CDs
*Premiere of Great Expectations: The 2010 Phillies Video Yearbook
*Free Official Phillies Rally Towel with any purchase
Friday, December 17 — Ornament Day
*Buy 3 ornaments, get 4th free
*Free Charlie Manuel Louisville Slugger Bat with any $100 purchase
Saturday, December 18 — Phanatic Day
*Take your picture with the Phillie Phanatic as Phanta Claus, 11 a.m. – 1 p.m.
*25% off all Phillie Phanatic Merchandise
*Book signing with Phanatic Illustrator, Len Epstein, 12 p.m. – 1 p.m.
*Free Phanatic figurine with any purchase
Sunday, December 19 — Name & Number Tee Day
*25% off all player name and number T-shirts
*Greg Luzinski autograph signing, 11 a.m. – 1 p.m.
*Bull’s BBQ Sauce – BOGO free
Monday, December 20 — Personalized Jersey Day
*Free personalization with purchase of any blank jersey or blank T-shirt. Phillies player names not included
*Free Official Phillies Rally Towel with any purchase
Tuesday, December 21 — Pin Day
*Buy 3 holiday pins, get 4th free
*25% off all board games and puzzles (Jenga, Checkers, Connect Four, Uno, Yahtzee)
*Free Phanatic figurine with any purchase
Wednesday, December 22 — MLB Authentic Collection Day
*25% off all MLB Authentic Collection caps and apparel. Includes select jerseys, fitted caps, fleece, jackets & tees
*Free Official Phillies Rally Towel with any purchase
Thursday, December 23 — Pubs Day
*25% off all Phillies Publications, including Phillies: An Extraordinary Tradition coffee table book
*Free Phillies laptop bag with purchase of $100 or more ($40 value)
Friday, December 24 — Ladies Day
*25% off all ladies apparel and accessories
*Free Motrin Ladies Night Print with purchase
*NOTE: Majestic Clubhouse  Store closes at 3 p.m.

leectric (electric, but in a dyslexic Phillies fan kind of way)

Although I haven’t yet stepped outside into the world, this day has a feeling kind of like the day after Obama won the 2008 election. You know, all the Obama supporters glided down their streets, filled with helium and giddiness. And the non-supporters felt an ominous cloud of doom sweeping over their lives and foreseeable futures. This is today, with the non-supporters consisting of the Yankees and the NL East teams and their fanbases. Terror, I imagine, is in their hearts. In any other situation, I would say using that word is maybe going a little overboard. But no, really, at this point it must be terror. 

Hmm but the build-up of this terror came in pretty classy fashion. 
I’m pretty sure right now the Phillies can not only say they have the BEST rotation in baseball, but also the classiest. Halladay has shown time and time again he has impeccable class. His ability to make a person feel special is apparently second to none. And he goes about his business with such a humble work ethic. Now the Phillies have another classy fella to love to pieces. Cliff Lee broke a lot of hearts to end up with the Phils, but he let them down nice and easy, with phone calls and kind gestures. Plus, he turned down millions of dollars to play in a city he loves. A city his wife loves. A city that loves him back. 
It’s inexplicable, but Cliff Lee and the Phillies are made for each other. When he joined the rotation in 2009, the chemistry was outstanding. When he was traded exactly one year ago, there was a gargantuan hole left in his stead. Not a Halladay. A hole. Halladay filled in around that hole and made everyone feel a little better about it. To some, he may have even temporarily patched the hole to stop the seepage. But now, Lee’s back to fill that hole. He’s the only one who fits it just right. 
view2.jpeg
Yep, right in that little red space…that’s where Cliffy fits. Sure, there are probably other puzzle pieces to be found before the Phillies can have the stand-out, nothing-can-compare season the nation is expecting. But for now, with that hole filled, the city is satisfied at least through the holiday season. In the meantime, I hope to pop over to Citizens Bank Park today before 6 p.m. to take a free clubhouse tour! Part of the Phillies’ 12 Days of Christmas extravaganza. 

**Merry Cliffmas and Happy Halladays!**

Cliff Lee–the magic number?

What number will Cliffy wear?! 

Halladay has 34. Hamels has 35. Oswalt has 44. How’s about we make Cliff 33 (his number in Texas) and make Oswalt change to 32 or 36? Let’s all go to CBP tomorrow and party. YES PLEASE. 
It’s a little crazy that Lee was traded away exactly a year ago. Matt and I were at CBP that very day attempting to buy Halladay shirts. (They didn’t have them.) The whole ride back, I was sour about losing Cliffy. Now, it’s all better. Because now the Phillies have both like should have happened in the first place. 
ALSO those fellas with Lee shirts turned into “HALLEEDAY” shirts…take that tape OFF! Or create a T-shirt business and mass produce them. 
« older posts | back to blog home |
Theme: MLB “modern” | Get a free blog at WordPress.com
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.